Study Of Aircraft Accidents In Canada
From 1987 To 1996
The
general perception is that ultralight activity is far more dangerous than
general aviation activity. The purpose of this study is to analyze factual
accident data that is available for both ultralight and general aviation
aircraft in order to objectively quantify the safety records of the two
categories.
There
is no reliable source for the number of hours flown each year so the metric
used is accidents per registered aircraft. This avoids the criticism that
there are aircraft on the registry from both categories that are not being
flown and affords an apples-to-apples comparison.
Accidents
per Aircraft Registered - Ultralight and General Aviation
The
table below shows total accident rates for both categories of aircraft.
|
Ultralight
Accidents
|
Ultralights
registered
|
Ratio
- Number of registered ultralights per accident
|
Accident
Rate per ultralight registered
|
General
Aviation accidents
|
General
Aviation Aircraft registered
|
Ratio
- Number of GA aircraft registered per accident
|
Accident
Rate per GA aircraft registered
|
1987
|
42
|
2949
|
1:70
|
0.014
|
472
|
22,270
|
1:47
|
0.021
|
1988
|
29
|
3105
|
1:107
|
0.009
|
497
|
22,469
|
1:45
|
0.022
|
1989
|
37
|
3211
|
1:86
|
0.012
|
482
|
22,463
|
1:47
|
0.021
|
1990
|
36
|
3363
|
1:93
|
0.011
|
498
|
22,278
|
1:45
|
0.022
|
1991
|
39
|
3477
|
1:89
|
0.011
|
453
|
21,973
|
1:49
|
0.021
|
1992
|
41
|
3607
|
1:88
|
0.011
|
435
|
21,795
|
1:50
|
0.020
|
1993
|
50
|
3744
|
1:75
|
0.013
|
422
|
21,452
|
1:51
|
0.020
|
1994
|
36
|
3840
|
1:107
|
0.009
|
380
|
21,212
|
1:56
|
0.018
|
1995
|
44
|
3956
|
1:90
|
0.011
|
390
|
21,169
|
1:54
|
0.018
|
1996
|
28
|
4070
|
1:145
|
0.007
|
335
|
21,089
|
1:63
|
0.016
|
Average
|
38.2
|
|
1:95
|
0.011
|
364.4
|
|
1:51
|
0.020
|
Accident
data from the Transportation Safety Board of Canada
Registration
data from Transport Canada Safety and Security
In
1987, there was one accident for every 70 ultralights flying which gives
an accident rate of 0.014. In 1996 there was one accident for every 145
ultralights flying which yields an accident rate of 0.007.
Compare
that to the figures for general aviation where in 1987 there was one accident
per 47 aeroplanes, an accident rate of 0.021, and in 1996 there was one
accident for every 63 aeroplanes flying, an accident rate of 0.016.
In
the ten years covered by this data, the accident rate for ultralight aeroplanes
is lower than for general aviation, in many years by half.
Fatal
Accidents per Aircraft Registered - Ultralight and General Aviation
There
is the possibility of unreported accidents for both ultralight and general
aviation aircraft. To eliminate this a comparison was made of fatal accidents
since fatalities are always reported.
|
Fatal
Ultralight Accidents
|
Ultralights
registered
|
Ratio
- Number of registered ultralights per fatal accident
|
Fatal
Accident Rate per ultralight registered
|
Fatal
General Aviation Accidents
|
General
Aviation Aircraft registered
|
Ratio
- Number of registered GA aircraft per fatal accident
|
Fatal
Accident Rate
per
GA aircraft registered
|
1987
|
3
|
2949
|
1:983
|
0.0010
|
55
|
22,270
|
1:404
|
0.0025
|
1988
|
6
|
3105
|
1:518
|
0.0019
|
50
|
22,469
|
1:449
|
0.0022
|
1989
|
4
|
3211
|
1:802
|
0.0012
|
60
|
22,463
|
1:374
|
0.0027
|
1990
|
6
|
3363
|
1:561
|
0.0018
|
47
|
22,278
|
1:474
|
0.0021
|
1991
|
7
|
3477
|
1:497
|
0.0020
|
64
|
21,973
|
1:468
|
0.0029
|
1992
|
5
|
3607
|
1:721
|
0.0014
|
47
|
21,795
|
1:464
|
0.0021
|
1993
|
3
|
3744
|
1:1248
|
0.0005
|
48
|
21,452
|
1:447
|
0.0022
|
1994
|
8
|
3840
|
1:480
|
0.0021
|
33
|
21,212
|
1:643
|
0.0016
|
1995
|
8
|
3956
|
1:495
|
0.0020
|
52
|
21,169
|
1:407
|
0.0025
|
1996
|
4
|
4070
|
1:1018
|
0.0010
|
43
|
21,089
|
1:490
|
0.0020
|
Average
|
5.4
|
|
1:732
|
0.0015
|
49.9
|
|
1:462
|
0.0022
|
Accident
data from the Transportation Safety Board
Registration
data from Transport Canada Safety and Security
The
accident rates for ultraights varied from a high of 0.0020 to a low of
0.0005. The rates for general aviation varied from a high of 0.0029 to
a low of 0.0016.
Ultralight
activity shows a much lower rate of fatal accidents than general aviation.
Conclusion
The
data shows that accident rates for ultralights are lower than for general
aviation aircraft. The data does not support the perception that there
is more risk involved in flying ultralight airplanes than in flying general
aviation airplanes. Conversely, the data demonstrates that ultralight activity
is actually safer than general aviation activity.
Prepared
by Kathy Lubitz, Dec. 1997
|